The Testing-Tree

On my way home from school
up tribal Providence Hill
past the Academy ballpark
where I could never hope to play
I scuffed in the drainage ditch
among the sodden seethe of leaves
hunting for perfect stones
rolled out of glacial time
into my pitcher's hand;
then sprinted lickety-
split on my magic Keds
from a crouching start,
scarcely touching the ground
with my flying skin
as I poured it on
for the prize of the mastery
over that stretch of road,
with no one no where to deny
when I flung myself down
that on the given course
I was the world's fastest human.

(Stanley Kunitz)

Perplexidades 1

Perante a incerteza o que fazer?

Esperar para ver? Recolher mais dados? Produzir ensaios? Tecer hipóteses de trabalho que carecem de validade empírica? Ensaiar soluções para obrigara a natureza a falar? Agir com base no histórico?

A incerteza gera o incentivo maior para o exercício cognitivo, mas encerra as maiores perplexidades. Não temos disponível nenhum instrumento seguro de análise do processo de decisão sobre incerteza.

As manifestações comportamentais dos decisores são meros sinais que carecem de descodificação.

If the water were clear enough,
if the water were still,
but the water is not clear,
the water is not still,
you would see yourself,
slipped out of your skin,
nosing upstream,
slapping, thrashing,
trumbling
over the rocks

(Stanley Kunitz)